This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing xerossilence’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
xerossilence | training | published before 2020 | 438 | 312 |
xerossilence | validation | published 2020 | 61 | 33 |
xerossilence | test | published after 2020 | 60 | 21 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
xerossilence | Space Cowboys | 3.4% | 0.1% | 23.68 |
xerossilence | Collectible Components | 13.2% | 1.5% | 8.69 |
xerossilence | Days Of Wonder | 1.4% | 0.2% | 8.04 |
xerossilence | Unknown | 5.0% | 0.8% | 6.32 |
xerossilence | Gamewright | 3.0% | 0.7% | 4.08 |
xerossilence | Square Grid | 3.9% | 1.0% | 4.08 |
xerossilence | ZMan Games | 5.0% | 1.4% | 3.63 |
xerossilence | Asmodee | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.55 |
xerossilence | Solo Solitaire Game | 11.0% | 3.2% | 3.47 |
xerossilence | Combinatorial | 4.6% | 1.6% | 2.89 |
xerossilence | Card Game | 62.6% | 28.8% | 2.17 |
xerossilence | Hasbro | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.88 |
xerossilence | Dice Rolling | 12.8% | 28.7% | 0.45 |
xerossilence | Adventure | 1.8% | 5.1% | 0.36 |
xerossilence | Action Dexterity | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0.22 |
xerossilence | Wargame | 0.5% | 19.1% | 0.02 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2013 | 124052 | Cinque Terre | 0.897 | no |
2 | 2018 | 257501 | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | 0.880 | no |
3 | 2015 | 158915 | GEM | 0.869 | yes |
4 | 2017 | 192827 | RUM | 0.859 | yes |
5 | 2009 | 39998 | Epic Trading Card Game | 0.857 | no |
6 | 2017 | 195456 | SPY | 0.856 | yes |
7 | 2017 | 192824 | GYM | 0.852 | yes |
8 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.845 | yes |
9 | 2009 | 40237 | Long Shot | 0.834 | no |
10 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.834 | yes |
11 | 2015 | 159143 | HUE | 0.831 | yes |
12 | 2015 | 161383 | LIE | 0.806 | yes |
13 | 2017 | 195454 | Nut | 0.798 | yes |
14 | 2017 | 192829 | SOW | 0.794 | yes |
15 | 2017 | 192830 | ORC | 0.788 | yes |
16 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.778 | no |
17 | 2017 | 195455 | BOX | 0.765 | yes |
18 | 2017 | 195373 | BOO | 0.757 | yes |
19 | 1993 | 463 | Magic: The Gathering | 0.749 | yes |
20 | 2017 | 197178 | DIG | 0.742 | yes |
21 | 1998 | 5952 | Xena: Warrior Princess CCG | 0.697 | no |
22 | 2002 | 4286 | A Game of Thrones Collectible Card Game | 0.693 | yes |
23 | 2013 | 142992 | Gravwell: Escape from the 9th Dimension | 0.671 | no |
24 | 1996 | 3487 | BattleTech CCG | 0.670 | yes |
25 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.660 | no |
26 | 1998 | 3488 | C-23 | 0.653 | yes |
27 | 2002 | 4052 | Star Wars: Trading Card Game | 0.644 | yes |
28 | 2016 | 216740 | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | 0.626 | no |
29 | 1998 | 21513 | Hercules: The Legendary Journeys Trading Card Game | 0.617 | no |
30 | 2011 | 98203 | Redakai | 0.609 | no |
31 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.601 | no |
32 | 2016 | 199042 | Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle | 0.601 | no |
33 | 1982 | 2511 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Thames Murders & Other Cases | 0.599 | no |
34 | 1861 | 11670 | The Game of Authors | 0.596 | no |
35 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.592 | yes |
36 | 2004 | 15396 | Linkity | 0.591 | no |
37 | 2016 | 192312 | Mr. Cabbagehead's Garden | 0.587 | yes |
38 | 2015 | 164158 | SHH | 0.586 | yes |
39 | 1997 | 1891 | Portal | 0.579 | no |
40 | 2017 | 230430 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Temple of Ra | 0.575 | no |
41 | 1150 | 2083 | Checkers | 0.572 | no |
42 | 2015 | 158917 | TKO | 0.552 | yes |
43 | 2017 | 229598 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | 0.545 | no |
44 | 2004 | 8817 | Call of Cthulhu: Collectible Card Game | 0.543 | yes |
45 | 2003 | 7860 | Simpsons Trading Card Game | 0.540 | yes |
46 | 2015 | 169611 | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | 0.519 | no |
47 | 2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.512 | no |
48 | 1996 | 1301 | Netrunner | 0.511 | yes |
49 | 2012 | 129622 | Love Letter | 0.503 | yes |
50 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.502 | yes |
51 | 2000 | 2120 | Looney Tunes Trading Card Game | 0.488 | no |
52 | 2016 | 205398 | Citadels | 0.488 | no |
53 | 1971 | 2223 | UNO | 0.487 | no |
54 | 1994 | 2122 | Vampire: The Eternal Struggle | 0.483 | yes |
55 | 400 | 2136 | Pachisi | 0.481 | yes |
56 | 1999 | 4154 | Yu-Gi-Oh! Trading Card Game | 0.481 | no |
57 | 2017 | 222885 | WOO | 0.477 | no |
58 | 2005 | 19623 | Handy | 0.473 | no |
59 | 2017 | 216092 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Squeek & Sausage | 0.468 | yes |
60 | 2017 | 229632 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | 0.468 | yes |
61 | 2016 | 205359 | Star Wars: Destiny | 0.462 | no |
62 | 2008 | 34496 | World of Warcraft Miniatures Game | 0.458 | no |
63 | 2011 | 108784 | Ascension: Storm of Souls | 0.457 | no |
64 | 2005 | 19554 | Plext | 0.455 | no |
65 | 1996 | 1627 | XXXenophile | 0.454 | no |
66 | 2017 | 201825 | Ex Libris | 0.450 | no |
67 | 1887 | 15878 | Rummy | 0.444 | no |
68 | 2007 | 59576 | Weiß Schwarz | 0.443 | no |
69 | 2018 | 254226 | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures | 0.440 | yes |
70 | 2017 | 221369 | Teen Titans GO! Deck-Building Game | 0.438 | no |
71 | 2017 | 237087 | DropMix | 0.437 | no |
72 | 1968 | 7262 | Top Trumps | 0.434 | no |
73 | 2019 | 294612 | Unlock!: Epic Adventures | 0.433 | yes |
74 | 1893 | 2386 | Chinese Checkers | 0.432 | no |
75 | 2018 | 282421 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Noël en Juillet | 0.431 | no |
76 | 1883 | 2389 | Othello | 0.431 | yes |
77 | 2004 | 12065 | Wig Out! | 0.428 | no |
78 | 2004 | 10445 | Duel Masters Trading Card Game | 0.428 | no |
79 | 2015 | 158916 | TAJ | 0.426 | yes |
80 | 1800 | 45 | Perudo | 0.423 | no |
81 | 2016 | 194232 | Rick and Morty: Total Rickall Card Game | 0.421 | yes |
82 | 1959 | 7688 | Memory | 0.419 | yes |
83 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.417 | no |
84 | 2019 | 274128 | Epic Spell Wars of the Battle Wizards: Annihilageddon Deck-Building Game | 0.416 | no |
85 | 2018 | 266121 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | 0.415 | yes |
86 | 2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.415 | yes |
87 | 2011 | 95064 | Ascension: Return of the Fallen | 0.415 | no |
88 | 2000 | 2453 | Blokus | 0.415 | no |
89 | 2019 | 258411 | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger | 0.413 | no |
90 | 2019 | 246535 | DC Deck-Building Game: Rebirth | 0.406 | no |
91 | 2019 | 279613 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures | 0.403 | yes |
92 | 2001 | 6346 | NBA Showdown | 0.402 | no |
93 | 1974 | 2719 | Connect Four | 0.401 | no |
94 | 2018 | 257707 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | 0.400 | yes |
95 | 2000 | 3668 | Tribbles Customizable Card Game | 0.399 | no |
96 | 2015 | 175307 | Love Letter: Adventure Time | 0.397 | no |
97 | 2015 | 158918 | FLY | 0.394 | yes |
98 | 2016 | 198522 | Archer: Once You Go Blackmail... | 0.391 | no |
99 | 2015 | 168584 | Love Letter: Batman | 0.383 | no |
100 | 2017 | 210295 | Lightseekers | 0.380 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.85 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.75 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think xerossilence is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 124052 | Cinque Terre | 0.897 | no |
2018 | 257501 | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | 0.880 | no |
2009 | 39998 | Epic Trading Card Game | 0.857 | no |
2009 | 40237 | Long Shot | 0.834 | no |
2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.778 | no |
What games does the model think xerossilence is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2012 | 132203 | What Do You Meme? | 0.004 | yes |
2004 | 13883 | Jenseits von Theben | 0.005 | yes |
2005 | 20130 | Liebrary | 0.005 | yes |
2012 | 95128 | Startup Fever | 0.005 | yes |
2017 | 226322 | That's a Question! | 0.005 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Cinque Terre | Splendor | GEM | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | RUM | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Tapestry |
2 | Love Letter | Gravwell: Escape from the 9th Dimension | Five Tribes | HUE | Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle | SPY | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
3 | Coup | My Little Pony: Collectible Card Game | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Deck-Building Game | LIE | Mr. Cabbagehead's Garden | GYM | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Noël en Juillet | Wingspan |
4 | Star Wars: The Card Game | Castle: The Detective Card Game | DC Comics Deck-Building Game: Rivals – Batman vs The Joker | SHH | Citadels | Nut | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
5 | DC Comics Deck-Building Game | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Deck-Building Game | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | TKO | Star Wars: Destiny | SOW | Star Realms: Frontiers | Epic Spell Wars of the Battle Wizards: Annihilageddon Deck-Building Game |
6 | Kaijudo | Forbidden Desert | Smash Up: Monster Smash | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | Rick and Morty: Total Rickall Card Game | ORC | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
7 | Game of Thrones: The Card Game | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Onirim (Second Edition) | TAJ | Archer: Once You Go Blackmail... | BOX | Epic Spell Wars of the Battle Wizards: Panic at the Pleasure Palace | DC Deck-Building Game: Rebirth |
8 | Shadows over Camelot: The Card Game | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | DC Comics Deck-Building Game: Forever Evil | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | BOO | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – The Adventurers of Oz | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures |
9 | Gentlemen Thieves | The Doom That Came to Atlantic City | Adventure Time Card Wars: Princess Bubblegum vs. Lumpy Space Princess | Love Letter: Adventure Time | Honshū | DIG | Grand Dog Park | Era: Medieval Age |
10 | Ascension: Immortal Heroes | The Walking Dead Board Game: The Best Defense | Fields of Arle | FLY | Hit Z Road | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Temple of Ra | Palm Island | Fire! |
11 | Zug um Zug: Deutschland | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Force of Will | Love Letter: Batman | Scythe | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Monster Crunch! The Breakfast Battle Game | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Night of the Boogeymen |
12 | Urbion | Batman: Arkham City Escape | Imperial Settlers | Elysium | Attack on Titan: Deck-Building Game | WOO | Crystallo | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
13 | Hot Rod Creeps | Glass Road | Adventure Time Card Wars: Finn vs. Jake | Viticulture Essential Edition | Pentaquark | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Squeek & Sausage | Rick and Morty: The Ricks Must Be Crazy Multiverse Game | Unlock!: Une Aventure – Ralph Azham: Le Foie de l'Axolotl |
14 | Penny Arcade: The Game – Rumble in R'lyeh | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Dragon Ball Z TCG (2014 edition) | Exploding Kittens: NSFW Deck | Terraforming Mars | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Transformers Trading Card Game | The Magnificent |
15 | Locke & Key: The Game | Battle Scenes | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Cartoon Network Crossover Crisis Deck-Building Game | Ex Libris | Card Capture | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
16 | Shadow Era | Impulse | Hawken: Real-Time Card Game – Sharpshooter vs. Bruiser | 504 | Love Letter Premium | Teen Titans GO! Deck-Building Game | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Scheherazade's Last Tale |
17 | Ginkgopolis | Lost Legacy: Hyakunen Senso to Ryu no Miko | King of New York | The Maiden in the Forest | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | DropMix | Rick and Morty: The Rickshank Rickdemption Deck-Building Game | Yukon Airways |
18 | The Big Bang Theory: The Party Game | Sushi Go! | Adventure Time Card Wars: BMO vs. Lady Rainicorn | Adventure Time Card Wars: Lemongrab vs. Gunter | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Lightseekers | Escape Tales: The Awakening | Aerion |
19 | Super Hero Squad Card Game | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | CapCom Street Fighter Deck-Building Game | Between Two Cities | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – Tombstone Express | Villagers |
20 | 3012 | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Deck-Building Game | Naruto Shippuden Deck-Building Game | Love Letter: Star Wars | Aeon's End | DC Comics Deck-Building Game: Confrontations | Boomerang | Caylus 1303 |
21 | Smash Up | Ascension: Rise of Vigil | Hawken: Real-Time Card Game | Stowaway 52 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | Gaia Project | Orchard: A 9 card solitaire game | Sierra West |
22 | Nautilus | La Boca | Hawken: Real-Time Card Game – Scout vs. Grenadier | Star Realms: Colony Wars | Adventure Time Card Wars: Doubles Tournament | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures | Blorg in the Midwest | Tiny Towns |
23 | Agricola: All Creatures Big and Small | Relic Runners | Star Realms | BUS | Star Trek: Frontiers | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Formula | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – A Noside Story | Rick and Morty: The Morty Zone Dice Game |
24 | MOD X | Myths at War | Guerra De Mitos V | Sylvion | Apotheca | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The House on the Hill | Between Two Castles of Mad King Ludwig | The Perfect Moment |
25 | Legendary: A Marvel Deck Building Game | Crossing | Bravest Warriors Co-operative Dice Game | T.I.M.E Stories | Rick and Morty: Mr. Meeseeks' Box o' Fun Dice and Dares Game | Unlock!: Mystery Adventures – The Nautilus' Traps | Metro X | Aeon's End: Legacy |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
xerossilence | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.721 |
xerossilence | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.628 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 229782 | Roland Wright: The Dice Game | 0.923 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.504 | yes |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.473 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.461 | no |
2020 | 309110 | Food Chain Island | 0.459 | yes |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.436 | yes |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.394 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.355 | no |
2020 | 294448 | Tea for 2 | 0.274 | no |
2020 | 301665 | DC Deck-Building Game: Dark Nights – Metal | 0.265 | no |
2020 | 296237 | Warp's Edge | 0.264 | yes |
2020 | 331952 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Die Noside-Show | 0.260 | no |
2020 | 331953 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Verloren im Zeitstrudel! | 0.260 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.255 | no |
2020 | 293556 | Gloomy Graves | 0.240 | no |
2020 | 325038 | The Brambles: A Solo Card Game | 0.216 | no |
2020 | 268469 | Pulp Invasion | 0.213 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.179 | yes |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.178 | no |
2020 | 302310 | Nanaki | 0.169 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.166 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.165 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.161 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.159 | no |
2020 | 302260 | Abandon All Artichokes | 0.156 | yes |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.149 | no |
2020 | 308755 | Ascension: Eternal | 0.143 | no |
2020 | 283155 | Calico | 0.139 | yes |
2020 | 291508 | Tiny Epic Dinosaurs | 0.136 | no |
2020 | 284742 | Honey Buzz | 0.133 | yes |
2020 | 299074 | Space Battle Lunchtime Card Game | 0.130 | no |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.127 | no |
2020 | 313537 | Something Wild! Mickey and Friends | 0.127 | yes |
2020 | 313538 | Something Wild! Toy Story | 0.127 | no |
2020 | 313539 | Something Wild! Villains | 0.127 | yes |
2020 | 313540 | Something Wild! Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas | 0.127 | no |
2020 | 313543 | Something Wild! | 0.127 | yes |
2020 | 301662 | Epic Spell Wars of the Battle Wizards: Hijinx at Hell High | 0.126 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.125 | yes |
2020 | 319325 | Lilypads | 0.124 | yes |
2020 | 307844 | Atheneum: Mystic Library | 0.124 | no |
2020 | 301607 | KeyForge: Mass Mutation | 0.122 | no |
2020 | 280472 | WWE Dice Masters: Campaign Box | 0.122 | no |
2020 | 293678 | Stellar | 0.119 | no |
2020 | 300583 | Village Green | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 309113 | Ticket to Ride: Amsterdam | 0.117 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.117 | yes |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.115 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.115 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.114 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 295374 | Long Shot: The Dice Game | 0.703 | no |
2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.493 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.485 | no |
2022 | 293941 | Mage Noir | 0.477 | no |
2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.441 | yes |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.407 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.367 | no |
2021 | 314088 | Agropolis | 0.338 | yes |
2021 | 322709 | Ugly Gryphon Inn | 0.319 | yes |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.303 | no |
2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.302 | yes |
2021 | 337961 | Transformers Deck-Building Game | 0.279 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.260 | yes |
2021 | 329873 | GROVE: A 9 card solitaire game | 0.241 | yes |
2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.233 | no |
2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.232 | no |
2021 | 330084 | Unlock!: Legendary Adventures | 0.232 | no |
2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.231 | no |
2021 | 322703 | Death Valley | 0.229 | yes |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.222 | no |
2021 | 347755 | Making Manhattan | 0.201 | yes |
2021 | 325815 | The Final Light-Year | 0.194 | yes |
2021 | 287608 | Epic Card Game: Duels | 0.178 | no |
2021 | 341963 | Tides | 0.175 | yes |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.174 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.172 | no |
2021 | 342562 | ROVE: Results-Oriented Versatile Explorer | 0.172 | yes |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.169 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.166 | yes |
2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.164 | no |
2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.164 | yes |
2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.163 | yes |
2021 | 310641 | Ostium | 0.157 | no |
2021 | 315221 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Rivals Expandable Card Game | 0.155 | no |
2021 | 306182 | Bandada | 0.155 | no |
2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.154 | no |
2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.153 | no |
2021 | 345630 | Something Wild! Marvel Infinity Saga: Iron Man | 0.150 | yes |
2021 | 345633 | Something Wild! Star Wars The Mandalorian: Grogu Game | 0.150 | yes |
2021 | 322124 | Power Rangers: Deck-Building Game | 0.148 | no |
2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.148 | no |
2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.143 | no |
2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.141 | no |
2021 | 327076 | Cartaventura: Lhasa | 0.141 | no |
2021 | 327077 | Cartaventura: Vinland | 0.141 | no |
2021 | 334590 | For Northwood! A Solo Trick-Taking Game | 0.141 | no |
2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.137 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.129 | no |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.128 | no |
2021 | 271529 | Botanik | 0.126 | no |
2021 | 312594 | The Forest Watch | 0.124 | yes |
2022 | 284118 | Mechanical Beast | 0.122 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.122 | no |
2021 | 344405 | Cartaventura: Oklahoma | 0.122 | no |
2021 | 334011 | A Gentle Rain | 0.121 | no |
2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.118 | no |
2022 | 345584 | Mindbug | 0.117 | yes |
2021 | 322560 | Maeshowe: an Orkney Saga | 0.116 | no |
2021 | 343526 | G.I. JOE Deck-Building Game | 0.116 | no |
2021 | 331328 | Unsurmountable | 0.111 | yes |
2021 | 327793 | 30 Monedas | 0.109 | no |
2021 | 318996 | Welcome to Sysifus Corp | 0.108 | no |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 330174 | Explorers | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 322282 | Momiji | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 344258 | That Time You Killed Me | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 330806 | Silverwood Grove | 0.105 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.104 | no |
2021 | 312618 | Flourish | 0.104 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.104 | no |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.103 | no |
2021 | 346296 | Tic Tac K.O.: Dragons vs Unicorns | 0.102 | no |
2021 | 324853 | Exit: The Game – Kidnapped in Fortune City | 0.101 | no |
2021 | 317432 | Exit: The Game – The Cursed Labyrinth | 0.101 | no |
2022 | 335212 | Sentinels of the Multiverse: Definitive Edition | 0.100 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.098 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.097 | no |
2022 | 352764 | Disney Villainous: Bigger and Badder | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.097 | yes |
2021 | 341164 | Exploding Minions | 0.093 | no |
2021 | 331050 | Disney Villainous: Despicable Plots | 0.093 | yes |
2021 | 329669 | Moving Pictures | 0.092 | yes |
2021 | 306697 | Smash Up: Marvel | 0.091 | no |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.090 | no |
2021 | 302469 | Ausonia | 0.090 | no |
2021 | 334307 | Clash of Decks: Starter Kit | 0.089 | yes |
2021 | 302914 | Dream Cruise | 0.089 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.088 | no |
2021 | 312289 | Your Friend Is Sad | 0.086 | no |
2021 | 338763 | Count of the Nine Estates | 0.085 | yes |
2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.084 | no |
2021 | 346603 | Hungry Little Demons | 0.084 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.083 | no |
2021 | 322705 | Hórreos | 0.082 | no |
2021 | 322697 | Revolver Noir | 0.082 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.082 | yes |
2021 | 344872 | À la Food Cart | 0.082 | yes |
2022 | 340789 | Nobel Run | 0.081 | no |
2021 | 315624 | World Changers | 0.080 | no |